Strained Relations in the High North : Steps-to-War Analysis of Conflict Potential in the Arctic

Varování

Publikace nespadá pod Ekonomicko-správní fakultu, ale pod Fakultu sociálních studií. Oficiální stránka publikace je na webu muni.cz.

Autoři	VLČEK Tomáš CHOVANČÍK Martin UHLÍŘOVÁ Kateřina JIRUŠEK Martin
Rok publikování	2024
Druh	Článek v odborném periodiku
Časopis / Zdroj	Europe-Asia Studies
Fakulta / Pracoviště MU	Fakulta sociálních studií
Citace
www	https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2023.2292471
Doi	http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2023.2292471
Klíčová slova	Arctic; Steps-to-War; Dispute; Military; Geopolitics; Russia; Arctic-8; Conflict
Přiložené soubory	Strained_Relations_in_the_High_North_Steps-to-War_Analysis_of_Conflict_Potential_in_the_Arctic.pdf
Popis	Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, tensions have heightened in the international relations and security environment, including the Arctic region. We are witnessing renewed geopolitical rivalry and military tensions between the Arctic states. In this article, a steps-to-war model of conflict escalation is used to calculate whether the conflict potential in the Arctic is rising. While our results confirm an increase in confrontational behaviour according to militarisation and coalition-building markers, the rivalry marker shows a rise in cooperative behaviour. Hence, in our model, the preconditions signalling an increased likelihood of international armed conflict are not fulfilled.
Související projekty:	ARCTIC Centre for Human-to-Environment Oriented Studies: Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arctic