GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC, PAMI, TIMI, Dynamic TIMI, Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

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Authors

LITTNEROVÁ Simona KALA Petr JARKOVSKÝ Jiří KUBKOVÁ Lenka KLUZ Krystyna KUBENA Petr TESÁK Martin TOMAN Ondřej POLOCZEK Martin ŠPINAR Jindřich DUŠEK Ladislav PAŘENICA Jiří

Year of publication 2015
Type Article in Periodical
Magazine / Source Plos one
MU Faculty or unit

Faculty of Medicine

Citation
Doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123215
Field Cardiovascular diseases incl. cardiosurgery
Keywords PERCUTANEOUS CORONARY INTERVENTION; OUTCOMES; REGISTRY; THERAPY; TRIAL; MODEL
Description To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients. Methods and Results A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was >= 3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores-the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE-showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73-0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80-0.83). Conclusions All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model.
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