Kvantitativní analýza mezery nezaměstnanosti a výstupu v České republice
| Title in English | Unemployment gap and output gap: A quantitative analysis |
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| Authors | |
| Year of publication | 2008 |
| MU Faculty or unit | |
| Citation | |
| Description | This paper deals with alternative estimates of NAIRU and of the potential output for the Czech economy. Simple hysteretic model of the Phillips curve and multi-equation dynamic macroeconomic model with rational expectations are used. Parameters of these models and paths of the NAIRU and potential output are estimated using techniques of Bayesian inference and filtration. NAIRU and potential output are treated as unobservable states of economic system. The model estimates indicate hysteretic patterns of the unemployment. Hence negative unemployment gap is not a threat to monetary stability. The interaction between NAIRU and potential output is not as strong as one may expect. This property and the empirical insignificance of the Okun's law seem to be crucial outcome of the hysteretic economic systems. Estimated output gap is minimal. Actual high growth rates are thus sustainable in the long run. |
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